1/22/2021

Football Meets Oligarchy

By Matthew
23 January, 2021 • 23:05GMT

“I was bored and wanted a new challenge”, Roman Abramovich told the BBC when he was asked on why he had bought Chelsea Football Club – never knew boredom could make someone buy a football club. Back in 2003, Chelsea was a struggling club owned by Ken Bates who would later go on to buy Leeds United. Chelsea was in debt and since on-pitch performances weren’t good enough to bring in much revenue, the club was struggling to meet up with its interest payments. Abramovich engrossed in buying a football club, probably to get out of boredom, Chelsea in need of a buyer who would pull it out of its potential bankruptcy, a match was about to be made in heaven.  

Many clubs were offered to Abramovich; Portsmouth FC, the red side of Manchester and then the club he would eventually buy, Chelsea. According to sources, the deal was finalized in just 15 minutes. Why did he choose Chelsea? Why wouldn’t he? One, Chelsea is located in London, a great place to ply all kinds of trade, and then he probably wanted to showcase his Billionaire status since Chelsea desperately needed cash at that time. So, who is Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich? 

Abramovich was born in Saratov, Russia in 1996 into a low class Jewish family who were originally from Lithuania and was raised by relatives since he was orphaned at the age of 4. He started work as a street trader and then worked as a mechanic at a local factory. In 1986, there was an economic and political restructuring of the Soviet Union, a reform called “perestroika”. Seeing this reform, he ventured into different businesses one including the sale of imported rubber ducks from his abode in Moscow. He later ventured into the trading of oil - the source of the resources he obtained to become an oil merchant remains obscure. At that time, Oil business was risky and not many went down that lane, but those that took the risk including Abramovich, were rewarded heavily. In 1993, he had made enough money to be considered as a business partner by many other rich Russian business men. Boris Berezovsky also known as Platon Elenin - most probably a pseudonym - a mathematician, former member of Russian Academy of Sciences and a wealthy man who had made his first fortune from selling locally produced cars, beckoned on Abramovich. He wanted him and Abramovich to bring many of Russia's oil companies under one organisation that they would own and control. Abramovich agreed and their business plan was a success.

         Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich

As at this point the Soviet Union had collapsed and Russia had entered its post communist time, Boris Yeltsin was Russia's first post communist president. In 1996, Yeltsin kicked off his re-election election campaign but something was missing, he needed money. Realising this, he called on Russia's biggest oligarchs, a group Abramovich belonged to - oligarchs are very wealthy people who also have political powers and then run the country to an extent. He told them he would implement privatisation of state assets if they would assist him financially and influence the media to ensure he got re-elected. Yeltsin won the election and as promised, sold most of Russia's assets to the oligarchs at a fraction of their market value. It was reported that Berezovsky and Abramovich bought a particular state asset worth $3 Billion for just $100 million. The oligarchs became politically affluent and wealthy at a time Russia was suffering from economic depression. Before the end of his tenure, Yeltsin was ill and was forced out largely because he was despised by Russia's citizens.

Vladimir Putin was the man to become Russia's next president and had promised the public that he would smash the oligarchs and bring all their assets back under state control. Many of the oligarchs didn't see Putin as a threat and started to work out a political reform. Abramovich, not underestimating Putin, quickly became an ally of the man many of the oligarchs had despised. The aftermath of their despise? Their assets were seized and they were jailed on the charge of tax fraud. Abramovich retained all of his assets but had to abandon any plan of a political reform, something he never really wanted anyway. Also, Abramovich pumped cash into Putin's projects, built him a palace and bought him a 57m yatch worth £25 million, all of these Abramovich denied.

           Vladimir Putin and Roman Abramovich                                  (background)

Berezovsky refused to be a friend of Putin and thus, his fallout with Abramovich. Berezovsky also said that Abramovich and Putin conspired against him and  took away his fortune. The issue was addressed in court where Abramovich and Putin were vindicated and Berezovsky found to be a false witness. About a year later,  Berezovsky was dead - believed to be suicide. The state later bought Abramovich's asset rather than seize it, for $13 Billion in 2005.

Abramovich a governor of a Russian province from 2003 to 2008 has been a key ally of Putin and his suffering from it presently as he is currently banned from entering the UK - a different story entirely - and unable to visit his club. From very humble beginnings to becoming a man who would eventually buy a football club out of boredom, Abramovich has probably been  Russia's biggest oligarch.

1/13/2021

Soccermatics: xG, Expected Goals

13 January 2020 • 2:59 GMT
Whether we like it or not, stats, data, mathematics are now a big part of football. How do we explain a doctor of particle physics being an integral part of a football club? Someone said, " football isn't rocket science but scientists are driving it in that direction". Some fans see data revolution as a threat rather than as a tool. Unsurprising, I fall into this group probably because I never really liked Maths - I mean, it was a miracle if I had a B in maths and if I had a D, it was expected. But why would some see it as a threat? Simple. Because when simple things become too complex, we displace the simplicity of it. Football is a simple game but where is the simplicity when I have to be a maths guru to understand it?

One of the evangelists of data in football is Matthew Benham, owner of Brentford Football Club who is also the owner of SmartOdds, a betting company. Of no doubt, betting companies make so much use of data, stats and Benham has also brought in the ideology to his club. As much as it hurts to admit, Brentford have been a successful club being run on this data revolution and are closing in on promotion to the Premier League.

There are many data metrics in football today. Some are used to analyse games - xG, xA, PPDA - while some are used in scouting and recruiting players - moneyball. So today's piece of writing is on xG, expected goals.

In football, every shot that a player shoots is given a quality value of 0-1. This value tells us if the shot should have become a goal clearly or if it was to difficult to become a goal, just like probability in maths. Before the invention of Expected Goals, there was an assumption that in every 10 shots a player takes, at least one must result in a goal. But this assumption has become outdated because there is no account of what types of shots they were or how far the shots were from goal. So what then is an expected goal?

An expected goal, xG is a data metric that measures the probability of a shot resulting in a goal using a considerable number of factors. Factors like, the distance of the shot from the goalpost, the angle of the shot( a tight angle or an open angle), was it a 1V1 situation, was it an headed goal or not and so on. There are different xG models today. While some take into consideration whether the player took the shot with his stronger foot or with the weaker, some don't. Some also take into consideration if the player was closed down by several players while taking the shot and some don't. Like I said or wrote, there are different xG models. There is no xG model that takes the player taking the shot into consideration, if it was Messi or Batshauyi. There is no such bias. According to the Opta model, the closer the shot is to the goalpost, the higher the xG.

         photo credit: Nouman

In this scenario, Tammy Abraham scored this goal. According to the Opta model, the shot had an xG of 0.10 which is a low value xG. A low value xG shot is less likely to result in a goal. The shot had a low value xG because Abraham was closed down by two players and the angle of the shot was a tight one. This means Abraham outperformed his expected goal by 0.90. An xG of 0.10 also means that in every 10 shots, only one would result in a goal. An xG of 0.02 means that in every 100 shots, only two would result in a goal. An xG of 0.80 means in every 10 shots, 8 would result in a goal. Simple, isn't it?

          Heung-Min Son is outperforming his xG

This season after 16 appearances, Heung Min Son has racked in 12 premier league goals but his xG of 5.39 according to the Understat model tell us that he should have scored 5 goals and not 12. This means Son is outperforming his xG by 6.61 (12 - 5.39). In simple words, Son should have only scored 5 goals but he has scored 12. This makes Son a very clinical striker and probably the most clinical in the Premier League. But let's not get carried away, this could mean Son is a very clinical striker or that Son has just been lucky. Also, it is quite impossible for a player to keep outperforming his xG by this margin. 

Also according to the Understat model - I use the Understat model a lot, well  because it's free - Sheffield United have scored just 8 goals this season despite having an xG of 16.8. This tells us they are underperforming their xG by 8 goals. In simple words, they should have scored 16 goals but they have only managed to net 8. This means that Sheffield have really poor strikers or that their strikers have been extremely unlucky.

There is more to xG as we have xGA (expected goals against), NPxG(Non Penalty expected goals) and so on but in order not to make this look like a maths tutorial, I have decided to round it off here. Don't fret if you didn't quite get today's article, you might just read it all over again or just join the "get rid of stats" campaign.