1/22/2021

Football Meets Oligarchy

By Matthew
23 January, 2021 • 23:05GMT

“I was bored and wanted a new challenge”, Roman Abramovich told the BBC when he was asked on why he had bought Chelsea Football Club – never knew boredom could make someone buy a football club. Back in 2003, Chelsea was a struggling club owned by Ken Bates who would later go on to buy Leeds United. Chelsea was in debt and since on-pitch performances weren’t good enough to bring in much revenue, the club was struggling to meet up with its interest payments. Abramovich engrossed in buying a football club, probably to get out of boredom, Chelsea in need of a buyer who would pull it out of its potential bankruptcy, a match was about to be made in heaven.  

Many clubs were offered to Abramovich; Portsmouth FC, the red side of Manchester and then the club he would eventually buy, Chelsea. According to sources, the deal was finalized in just 15 minutes. Why did he choose Chelsea? Why wouldn’t he? One, Chelsea is located in London, a great place to ply all kinds of trade, and then he probably wanted to showcase his Billionaire status since Chelsea desperately needed cash at that time. So, who is Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich? 

Abramovich was born in Saratov, Russia in 1996 into a low class Jewish family who were originally from Lithuania and was raised by relatives since he was orphaned at the age of 4. He started work as a street trader and then worked as a mechanic at a local factory. In 1986, there was an economic and political restructuring of the Soviet Union, a reform called “perestroika”. Seeing this reform, he ventured into different businesses one including the sale of imported rubber ducks from his abode in Moscow. He later ventured into the trading of oil - the source of the resources he obtained to become an oil merchant remains obscure. At that time, Oil business was risky and not many went down that lane, but those that took the risk including Abramovich, were rewarded heavily. In 1993, he had made enough money to be considered as a business partner by many other rich Russian business men. Boris Berezovsky also known as Platon Elenin - most probably a pseudonym - a mathematician, former member of Russian Academy of Sciences and a wealthy man who had made his first fortune from selling locally produced cars, beckoned on Abramovich. He wanted him and Abramovich to bring many of Russia's oil companies under one organisation that they would own and control. Abramovich agreed and their business plan was a success.

         Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich

As at this point the Soviet Union had collapsed and Russia had entered its post communist time, Boris Yeltsin was Russia's first post communist president. In 1996, Yeltsin kicked off his re-election election campaign but something was missing, he needed money. Realising this, he called on Russia's biggest oligarchs, a group Abramovich belonged to - oligarchs are very wealthy people who also have political powers and then run the country to an extent. He told them he would implement privatisation of state assets if they would assist him financially and influence the media to ensure he got re-elected. Yeltsin won the election and as promised, sold most of Russia's assets to the oligarchs at a fraction of their market value. It was reported that Berezovsky and Abramovich bought a particular state asset worth $3 Billion for just $100 million. The oligarchs became politically affluent and wealthy at a time Russia was suffering from economic depression. Before the end of his tenure, Yeltsin was ill and was forced out largely because he was despised by Russia's citizens.

Vladimir Putin was the man to become Russia's next president and had promised the public that he would smash the oligarchs and bring all their assets back under state control. Many of the oligarchs didn't see Putin as a threat and started to work out a political reform. Abramovich, not underestimating Putin, quickly became an ally of the man many of the oligarchs had despised. The aftermath of their despise? Their assets were seized and they were jailed on the charge of tax fraud. Abramovich retained all of his assets but had to abandon any plan of a political reform, something he never really wanted anyway. Also, Abramovich pumped cash into Putin's projects, built him a palace and bought him a 57m yatch worth £25 million, all of these Abramovich denied.

           Vladimir Putin and Roman Abramovich                                  (background)

Berezovsky refused to be a friend of Putin and thus, his fallout with Abramovich. Berezovsky also said that Abramovich and Putin conspired against him and  took away his fortune. The issue was addressed in court where Abramovich and Putin were vindicated and Berezovsky found to be a false witness. About a year later,  Berezovsky was dead - believed to be suicide. The state later bought Abramovich's asset rather than seize it, for $13 Billion in 2005.

Abramovich a governor of a Russian province from 2003 to 2008 has been a key ally of Putin and his suffering from it presently as he is currently banned from entering the UK - a different story entirely - and unable to visit his club. From very humble beginnings to becoming a man who would eventually buy a football club out of boredom, Abramovich has probably been  Russia's biggest oligarch.

1/13/2021

Soccermatics: xG, Expected Goals

13 January 2020 • 2:59 GMT
Whether we like it or not, stats, data, mathematics are now a big part of football. How do we explain a doctor of particle physics being an integral part of a football club? Someone said, " football isn't rocket science but scientists are driving it in that direction". Some fans see data revolution as a threat rather than as a tool. Unsurprising, I fall into this group probably because I never really liked Maths - I mean, it was a miracle if I had a B in maths and if I had a D, it was expected. But why would some see it as a threat? Simple. Because when simple things become too complex, we displace the simplicity of it. Football is a simple game but where is the simplicity when I have to be a maths guru to understand it?

One of the evangelists of data in football is Matthew Benham, owner of Brentford Football Club who is also the owner of SmartOdds, a betting company. Of no doubt, betting companies make so much use of data, stats and Benham has also brought in the ideology to his club. As much as it hurts to admit, Brentford have been a successful club being run on this data revolution and are closing in on promotion to the Premier League.

There are many data metrics in football today. Some are used to analyse games - xG, xA, PPDA - while some are used in scouting and recruiting players - moneyball. So today's piece of writing is on xG, expected goals.

In football, every shot that a player shoots is given a quality value of 0-1. This value tells us if the shot should have become a goal clearly or if it was to difficult to become a goal, just like probability in maths. Before the invention of Expected Goals, there was an assumption that in every 10 shots a player takes, at least one must result in a goal. But this assumption has become outdated because there is no account of what types of shots they were or how far the shots were from goal. So what then is an expected goal?

An expected goal, xG is a data metric that measures the probability of a shot resulting in a goal using a considerable number of factors. Factors like, the distance of the shot from the goalpost, the angle of the shot( a tight angle or an open angle), was it a 1V1 situation, was it an headed goal or not and so on. There are different xG models today. While some take into consideration whether the player took the shot with his stronger foot or with the weaker, some don't. Some also take into consideration if the player was closed down by several players while taking the shot and some don't. Like I said or wrote, there are different xG models. There is no xG model that takes the player taking the shot into consideration, if it was Messi or Batshauyi. There is no such bias. According to the Opta model, the closer the shot is to the goalpost, the higher the xG.

         photo credit: Nouman

In this scenario, Tammy Abraham scored this goal. According to the Opta model, the shot had an xG of 0.10 which is a low value xG. A low value xG shot is less likely to result in a goal. The shot had a low value xG because Abraham was closed down by two players and the angle of the shot was a tight one. This means Abraham outperformed his expected goal by 0.90. An xG of 0.10 also means that in every 10 shots, only one would result in a goal. An xG of 0.02 means that in every 100 shots, only two would result in a goal. An xG of 0.80 means in every 10 shots, 8 would result in a goal. Simple, isn't it?

          Heung-Min Son is outperforming his xG

This season after 16 appearances, Heung Min Son has racked in 12 premier league goals but his xG of 5.39 according to the Understat model tell us that he should have scored 5 goals and not 12. This means Son is outperforming his xG by 6.61 (12 - 5.39). In simple words, Son should have only scored 5 goals but he has scored 12. This makes Son a very clinical striker and probably the most clinical in the Premier League. But let's not get carried away, this could mean Son is a very clinical striker or that Son has just been lucky. Also, it is quite impossible for a player to keep outperforming his xG by this margin. 

Also according to the Understat model - I use the Understat model a lot, well  because it's free - Sheffield United have scored just 8 goals this season despite having an xG of 16.8. This tells us they are underperforming their xG by 8 goals. In simple words, they should have scored 16 goals but they have only managed to net 8. This means that Sheffield have really poor strikers or that their strikers have been extremely unlucky.

There is more to xG as we have xGA (expected goals against), NPxG(Non Penalty expected goals) and so on but in order not to make this look like a maths tutorial, I have decided to round it off here. Don't fret if you didn't quite get today's article, you might just read it all over again or just join the "get rid of stats" campaign. 

12/30/2020

How Does The Goal Line Technology Work?


By Matthew

30 December 2020 • 0:15GMT

 Since its introduction in the Premier League's 2013/14 season, Hawk-Eye's Goal Line Technology system has failed just once in over 9000 matches that it has been in operation. Of no doubt, the Goal Line Technology (GLT) has refined football, and so, how does it work?

GLT is basically a cluster of technologies that together monitors the path and movement of the ball and spots when it crosses the goal line. There are 4 major systems of the GLT approved by FIFA and the International Football Association Board (IFAB) which operate mainly by either camera tracking or magnetic field sensors.

•GoalControl

At the 2014 FIFA world cup, Brazil, GoalControl was the GLT system used. The German Company gained approval and certification just before the Hawk-Eye system. Before it was used at the world cup, it was successfully tested at the Confederations Cup and at the FIFA club world cup, 2013.

GoalControl uses camera tracking. 14 high speed cameras are mounted on the stadium roof (7 cameras per goal mouth) to capture the position of the ball in the air and on the ground. The referee receives a notification via his watch when the ball crosses the line.

•Hawk-Eye

Just like GoalControl, Hawk-Eye uses camera tracking. 7 cameras are installed at each goal, usually at the roof of the stadium. A software gathers the information from all cameras and then, tracks the ball in relation to the goal line. A signal is sent to the referee's watch within a second when the ball crosses the line. Ten seconds after, a graphical display of the ball's location is ready to be broadcasted.

Hawk-Eye is the present GLT system of the English Premier League and has been around since 2013.

Seven High Speed Cameras per goal mouth

•GoalRef

German Company, Fraunhofer IIS is the creator of GoalRef, a company that specialises in wireless communications. This GLT system uses magnetic field sensors built into the goal frames to detect the passing of the ball.

•Cairos GLT system

Cairos technologies and Adidas are the producers of this GLT system which also uses magnetic field sensors. In this system, a magnetic sensor is put into the ball. This sensor detects the magnetic field produced by thin wires underneath the penalty box. A computer then tracks the position of the ball using the sensor.

Another GLT system is GoalMinder which uses cameras built into goalposts and crossbars.

The Sheffield United Incident

A foul is being committed. It's a free kick to Sheffield on their left flank. Oliver Norwood is standing over the dead ball, ready to take the free kick and Aston Villa's defence is getting organised. Norwood sends a beautiful ball in, but Villa's goalie, Ørjan Nyland claims the ball in the air. As Nyland reaches for the ground, teammate, Keinan Davis bumps into him and then he is pushed together with the ball beyond the goal line. Nyland quickly presses the ball unto the goal frame, Sheffield United players are celebrating, the ball clearly crossed the line already.

Nyland is seen to have crossed the line with the ball. Photo Credit: Sheffield United TV

To their surprising disappointment, Referee, Michael Oliver doesn't award the goal, his wrist watch hasn't indicated, by vibration, that the ball crossed the line. Inevitably, this decision sparks a lot of controversies.

Hawk-Eye, the company that runs the league's goal line technology, after the match said that the view of the seven cameras were obstructed by the combination of the goalkeeper, defender and the post. Its statement read:

"During the first half of Aston Villa v Sheffield United match at Villa Park, there was a goal line incident where the ball was carried over the line by Aston Villa goalkeeper, No. 25 Nyland.

"The match officials did not receive a signal to the watch nor earpiece as per the Goal Decision System (GDS) protocol. The seven cameras located in the stands around the goal area were significantly occluded by the goalkeeper, defender, and goalpost. This level of occlusion has never been seen before in over 9,000 matches that the Hawk-Eye Goal Line Technology system has been in operation.

"The system was tested and proved functional prior to the start of the match in accordance with the IFAB Laws of The Game and confirmed as working by the match officials. The system has remained functional throughout. Hawk-Eye unreservedly apologises to the Premier League, Sheffield United, and everyone affected by this incident."

In 2013, when it was introduced to the Premier League, it was said that Hawk-Eye's high speed cameras had the ability to remove any player's picture obscuring the ball. It is still not understood why it didn't in this match.

After the match, Sheffield United's coach, Chris Wilder said he didn't know if he had to laugh or cry as he was deeply hurt by the decision. It cost them two points.

Sometimes, there are errors with all the technologies around but Goal Line Technology has been a huge success since its inception.

12/25/2020

Park Chu Young, Arsenal's Biggest Flop?


 By Matthew

25 December 2020 • 1.08GMT

What if the Lille officials got to the hotel room just before the phone call? Or what if the second part of the medicals weren't needed to finalise the transfer deal? Probably, the nadir of his career wouldn't have started at that time.    

Relegated Monaco had to sell some of their fine players in order to cope with the financial implications the club would face. It turned out to be that Park Chu Young was one of their finest players. Lille were interested in signing him and having agreed a fee of £2.7 million euros with Monaco, they were pretty sure Park was a new player of theirs. Everything went smoothly and Park had completed the first part of his medicals - medicals are a essential part of transfers, if a player fails his medicals, the transfer would breakdown.

He was waiting in his hotel room, Lille officials were on their way, they had a second part of the medicals to finish. Then Park's phone rang while he was waiting, who was on the line? Well, it wasn't his girlfriend wanting to congratulate him on his potential move to Lille, it was Arsene Wenger, yes Wenger, the manager of Arsenal as at that time. Why would Wenger give him a call? He wanted Park to sign for Arsenal. I can imagine Park wondering if he was in a dream or something. He walked out of his hotel room and headed to the Eurostar Terminal. Of course, he was going to the Emirates, London. Lille officials got to his hotel room, but Park was gone. Somehow they tracked him down and found him at the terminal where Park told them he was going to London to sign for Arsenal.

As a 26 year old South Korean, Park had to return to his country for millitary service before the end of 2013 - every able-bodied Korean man must undergo two years in the country's armed services before the age of 28. So Park had to deliver for Arsenal as quickly as he could.

When Park finally arrived at the North London club just before the close of the transfer window in 2011, he was given the legendary No 9 shirt. In a league cup game against Bolton Wanderers, Park scored the winner for Arsenal. But later on, Park would reveal himself as one of Arsenal's biggest ever flops. November 2011, a Champions League match against Marseille was Park's Champions League debut in which he was replaced after 60 minutes due to him being very terrible, his pace was nothing close to a manageable one, it was terribly bad." He did very well last week. Tonight you could see that he lacked the pace of the game a little bit because he has not played enough games" - words of Arsene Wenger on Park after the match. Due to his poor form, he played only six times in the 2011/12 season, one of those were in the Premier League and that single Premier League appearance would go on to be the only English League appearance in his career.

In January 2012, Arsenal re-signed Theirry Henry - a club legend. Phenomenal winger, Robin Van Persie was converted to a striker - Park's original position - and Lukas Podolski was already on his way to Arsenal. Podolski arrived in the summer of that year and the No 9 shirt that Park wore was given to Podolski. Park's new shirt number was 30. With all these, there was no way Park would play since his position was already occupied by better players - based on statistics. What next for Park? He was loaned out to Celta Vigo where he scored four times in 26 outings.

The loan spell at Celta ended and Park was back at Arsenal for the 2013/14 season. October 2013, Arsenal faced Chelsea in the League Cup and of course, Park didn't make the starting XI but luckily he made it to the bench. 81 minutes gone already, Park was subbed on in the game they went on to lose 2-0 and those few minutes he played were the only first team action he was part of for the whole season. His Arsenal career was over and he never played for the Reds again. 

Arsenal released him at the end of the season and he signed up as a free agent for Al-Shabab, a Saudi Arabian club. Presently, he is 35 and plays for FC Seoul in South Korea, his country.

I wonder what part of all these he regrets the most, the part that he signed for Arsenal or the part that he delayed his millitary service for 10 years by obtaining a 10 year Monaco residency visa just to play for a club that he wouldn't make anything out of, well except for the fact that he got richer even though he didn't play, I mean he was on more than £40,000 euros a week. Park's Arsenal career wasn't just a walk in the park afterall.

12/23/2020

NOTICE!!!

By Matthew
23 DECEMBER 2020 • 00:17GMT

Hello there, I'm Matthew. Welcome to the Football Correspondent blog. A sports blog dedicated to providing in-depth analysis into European Football.

This blog used to be SM10 Sport, but in order to fully articulate the purpose and contents of the blog and to clearly express the game, Football Correspondent is the new name.

This is an overview of the blog

•Blog Title: Football Correspondent
•Blog site: footballcrest.blogspot.com
•Blog Description: An In-depth analysis into European Football

Being a potential correspondent, I admire and learn from the works of leading figures like:

•Jason Burt (Chief Football Correspondent)
•Michael Cox (Data Analytics Expert)
•Jonathan Wilson (Football Historian)
•Seb Stafford Bloor (Football Writer's Association Member)
•JJ Bull (Tactical Analyst).

As a result, you can expect to read world-class contents on the Football Correspondent blog.
Contents released on the blog are sourced by me and are reliable and authentic.

The Football Correspondent blog majors on:

•what happens behind the scenes in many European clubs and leagues, how the game is being run by its administrators and many more.
•tactical analysis.
•football and data analytics (soccermatics)

So be sure to visit this blog site regularly to get the best of football journalism.

11/23/2020

LEEDS UNITED TALE

We lived the dream
- Peter Ritsdale, former Leeds Chairman.

From 1961-1975, Leeds United were a powerhouse in football. A brilliant side firing on all cylinders. A side that was seen as one of the strongest in Europe. In 1969, they won the football league championship and the FA cup in 1972. They won the league again in 1974 and got to the final of the European Championship in 1975. In the 1980s, Leeds declined but would go on to win the football league in 1992 just before the Premier League was formed. In 2001, Leeds were a present day "Chelsea" in the sense that they had a very good "young" squad and this young brilliant side reached the semi finals of the Uefa Champions League in that same year. 

In 2003, Leeds suffered what would go on to become one of football's biggest "financial collapse". Leeds had borrowed too much money to buy the biggest players. "Of the drive for success, we lived the dream" was what former Chairman, Peter Ridsdale said. Leeds had to offload the star players they had borrowed money to buy.

Rio Ferdinand (signed Nov 2000, £18m; sold for £30m to Manchester United)
Robbie Keane (signed May 2001, £12m; sold for £7m)
Lee Bowyer (signed July 1996, £2.8m; sold for £100,000 to West Ham).
Robbie Fowler (signed Nov 2002, £11m; sold for £6m to Manchester City). 
Jonathan Woodgate (sold for  £9m to Newcastle United). 
Woodgate was a part of the Leeds double winning youth side in 1996-97

Leeds were eventually relegated in 2004 with debt of over £100,000,000. A consurtium of local business men took charge of the club, settled many debts, sold more players and even sold assets of the club including their stadium, Elland Road. The stadium was in turn, rented back to Leeds. These business men couldn't handle Leeds anymore and sold the club to Ken Bates and some "anonymous investors" in January 2005. Ken Bates was the owner of Chelsea until 2003 when he sold it to Roman Abramovich. Ken Bates could also not put the club back on track as the club struggled with its wage bills.

2007, Leeds were further relegated to the League One. In the same year, Bates reduced the club's debts by placing the club into administration.
•What's Administration? It's a common term used in the UK for clubs that chose to enter it. This situation arises when they are unable to pay off outstanding debts, so it puts an exterior entity (accountants) to manage the club and its assets to ensure that all creditors are paid (other clubs, suppliers, players, staff etc.)

Leeds played in the League One for three years before gaining promotion to the Championship in 2010. In 2012, Bates sold the club to the Gulf Finance House and in 2014, the Finance House sold the club to an Italian American Investor, Massimo Cellino who was convicted of Tax Fraud. In 2 years of ownership, Massimo sacked 6 managers at the club.

In January 2017, Cellino's compatriot Andrea Radrizzani bought a majority stake in the club for £45,000,000. Then in May, Radrizzani announced the 100% buyout of Leeds United, buying the remaining 50% shares from previous co-owner Massimo Cellino , with Radrizzani taking full ownership of the club.
                     Andrea Radrizzani
About a month later, Radrizzani appointed Thomas Christiansen as the new head coach of the club saying " he wanted to bring back the winning culture at Leeds". Thomas would later be be dismissed after a poor run of form.
On 28 June 2017, Radrizzani completed the purchase of Elland Road, making the stadium property of Leeds United for the first time since 2004.

The turning point for Leeds was probably in June 2015 when the manager that would eventually lead them back to the Premier League was given the job. Marcelo Bielsla will forever be remembered in the hearts of many Leeds' fans, a coach with a deviant tactical approach to the game.

In the summer of 2020, Leeds were back in the Premier League, a competition they used to to belong to until the great financial depression.
From the local business men to Ken Bates to the Gulf Finance House, then to  Massimo Cellino, none could revive Leeds United.
Andrea Radrizzani has indeed proven to be the saviour.               Leeds celebrate promotion to the             Premier League, 2020