I have found Crystal Palace pretty interesting ever since former Arsenal Midfielder, Patrick Viera, took over at the south london club. When he became Head Coach at Selhurst Park, every palace fan was expecting a revolution. I was expecting one as well. The club had been previously managed by a very conservative and pragmatic Roy Hodgson. Roy would have palace sit deep in a 4-4-2 formation, capitalise on opponents mistakes, turn possession over, counter and then, of course, pass the ball to Zaha - who desperately wanted out of the club at some point.
As expected, the Viera revolution is here. Attacking football left, right and center. Players showing off their dribbling prowess and the team now pressing than ever. What I, personally, find interesting is how this attacking revolution has not really translated into points and a much higher league table finish for Palace. Last season, they finished in 12th place with 48 points. The season before, they finished in 14th place with 44 points and in Roy Hodgson's penultimate season, they finished 14th with 43 points. So what has really changed for good since Viera's appointment in July 2021? Fans who like their team playing entertaining football are definitely enjoying what they see compared to the past few seasons but what major impact has this 'positive football' had?
One thing that catches the eye is how Palace have turned to younger players. In the 2021/22 season, the Crystal Palace board seriously began to focus on recruiting younger players. They had also spent around £20 million pounds on their academy. What they really did was to not renew expired contracts of more than 9 squad players and then, they went after fresh legs.
In the 2019/20 season, the average age of the club's squad was 29.4 years old. In the 2020/21 season, it was 29.1 years. Coinciding with when Viera came in, the average age dropped significantly to 27.1 years and presently this season, it's at 27.6. Marc Guehi, Conor Gallagher (loan, now returned back to Chelsea), Michael Olise et al. were among the young players that landed at Selhurst Park.
Just for the records, I was obsessed with Gallagher at some point last season.
With younger players sticking around, one would presume that the team's pressing intensity should practically increase but what do the stats tell us?
In the 2019/20 season, Crystal Palace had attempted 6252 pressures and won just 1698 leaving the success rate at 27.2%. The next season, they attempted 5700 pressures, won 1502, and had a success rate of 26.4%. Last season, when the average age dropped, they attempted 6041 pressures, won 1809 and had a success rate of 30%. This statistic provided is merely a descriptive one and we can't really deduce too much from it, as it is lacking some form of context. But what we can see from it is that last season was the period the team had the best success rate in applying pressures on opponent teams compared to the previous two.
Let's look into the currency of football - goals.
Crystal Palace scored 50 goals last season. The three clubs that immediately sat above them on the league table - Brighton, Wolves and Newcastle - scored 42, 38 and 44 goals respectively.
Crystal Palace scored 39 goals two seasons ago (excluding own goals).
Three seasons ago, they scored just 29 goals (excluding own goals).
Since the Viera era began, there is no doubt that Crystal Palace having been finding the net more often than when they were under Roy Hodgson. But another metric to scrutinise is the expected goals metric (xG). xG can tell us the amount of goals a team is supposed to score and then we can compare it with with the number the team actually scored.
The season with the 50 goals scored, they had an xG of 50 goals. This means that Palace clinically made do with the chances they created. The season with the 39 goals scored, they had an xG of 35 goals. This means that Palace scored 4 more goals than they should have. The season with the 29 goals had an xG of 34. It is evident that in Viera's pioneer season, the team created more chances than they did in Roy's last two seasons. An xG of 50 compared to 35 and 34 means Palace are truly a more attacking side. They are creating more chances than they did under their former manager. That is a fact! But anyways, with the team more interesting going forward, the defence haven't really Improved too much and aren't really different from the Crystal Palace of two or three seasons ago. Unfortunately, they concede too many goals. Maybe this provides the answer to why the Veira revolution hasn't picked up many points as I, personally, feel they should be picking.
Was waiting for your analysis on Crystal palace's defence when you spoke about the attack and how the attack has improved and gladly you did!
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